Our number62.4%

Our model's estimate of each player's chance to win, built from rankings, recent results, surface record and head-to-head history. Shown in orange.

The market54.1%

What the bookmakers' odds say the chances are, once you strip out their built-in fee. Shown as the cream tick.

Edge+8.3%

The gap between our number and the bookies' number. If we make a player 60% and the odds say 50%, that's a +10% edge. Bigger edge = better value. We only call something a pick at +5% or more.

Action / Watch / No play

Action = enough value to bet. Watch = slight value, not enough to bet. No play = the price is fair or bad.

L10L10 70%

Matches won out of the last 10 played. 70% means 7 wins, 3 losses.

Surface %Grass 71%

Win rate on this court type (grass, clay or hard). Some players are far better on one surface than another.

EloElo 1890

A skill score that rises when you beat strong opponents and falls when you lose to weak ones. Around 1500 is tour average; 2000+ is elite. We score it separately per surface.

H2HH2H 3–1

Head-to-head: how many times each player has beaten the other in past meetings.

Best+150

The best price currently offered on our pick, in American odds. +150 means a $100 bet returns $150 profit; -120 means you risk $120 to win $100.

The short version: orange is what we think, cream is what the bookies think, and the edge is the gap between them. We flag a pick when that gap is 5% or more in your favor.