Backtested · 2025 ATP · real Pinnacle odds · 99 picks
Track Record
surface elo model · 5%+ edge threshold · vig-adjusted closing line
ROI · 2025
+5.15%
+5.10 units net · vs Pinnacle close
Picks · 2025
99
sharper market = fewer 5%+ edges
Hit Rate
47.5%
47 winners
Max Drawdown
-9.22u
best month +8.51u · worst -4.04u
Equity Curve · Cumulative units P/L
82 days
Performance · by surface
| Surface | Picks | Hit | ROI | Net | Avg odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hard | 58 | 46.6% | +4.00% | +2.32u | 2.43 |
| clay | 32 | 43.8% | +0.00% | +0.00u | 2.61 |
| grass | 9 | 66.7% | +30.89% | +2.78u | 2.05 |
Performance · by edge bucket
| Edge | Picks | Hit | ROI | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5–7% | 15 | 53.3% | +44.13% | +6.62u |
| 7–10% | 22 | 45.5% | -0.09% | -0.02u |
| 10–15% | 23 | 47.8% | -4.61% | -1.06u |
| 15%+ | 39 | 46.2% | -1.13% | -0.44u |
Settled Picks · Last 80
most recent
| Date | Matchup | Pick | Odds | Stake | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-31 | Zverev A. vs Medvedev D. | Zverev A. ML | 2.120 | 1.00u | +8.3% | W |
| 2025-10-30 | Bublik A. vs Fritz T. | Fritz T. ML | 1.830 | 1.00u | +27.7% | L |
| 2025-10-30 | Shelton B. vs Rublev A. | Shelton B. ML | 1.770 | 1.00u | +9.3% | W |
| 2025-10-29 | Khachanov K. vs Fonseca J. | Fonseca J. ML | 2.230 | 1.00u | +23.4% | L |
| 2025-10-29 | Medvedev D. vs Dimitrov G. | Dimitrov G. ML | 3.950 | 1.00u | +23.2% | L |
| 2025-10-22 | Griekspoor T. vs Nakashima B. | Griekspoor T. ML | 2.000 | 1.00u | +15.3% | W |
| 2025-10-20 | Griekspoor T. vs Khachanov K. | Griekspoor T. ML | 2.560 | 1.00u | +5.8% | W |
| 2025-10-18 | Humbert U. vs Rune H. | Rune H. ML | 1.880 | 1.00u | +14.3% | L |
| 2025-09-29 | Medvedev D. vs Zverev A. | Zverev A. ML | 2.030 | 1.00u | +13.2% | L |
| 2025-09-07 | Alcaraz C. vs Sinner J. | Sinner J. ML | 1.810 | 1.00u | +18.0% | L |
| 2025-09-05 | Alcaraz C. vs Djokovic N. | Djokovic N. ML | 4.030 | 1.00u | +38.9% | L |
| 2025-09-03 | Djokovic N. vs Fritz T. | Djokovic N. ML | 1.530 | 1.00u | +15.3% | W |
| 2025-08-31 | Bublik A. vs Paul T. | Paul T. ML | 1.990 | 1.00u | +24.1% | L |
| 2025-08-24 | Mensik J. vs Jarry N. | Mensik J. ML | 1.410 | 1.00u | +10.9% | W |
| 2025-08-18 | Alcaraz C. vs Sinner J. | Sinner J. ML | 1.530 | 1.00u | +15.5% | L |
| 2025-08-16 | Alcaraz C. vs Zverev A. | Zverev A. ML | 2.430 | 1.00u | +14.3% | L |
| 2025-08-16 | Zverev A. vs Shelton B. | Zverev A. ML | 1.660 | 1.00u | +7.6% | W |
| 2025-08-14 | Zverev A. vs Khachanov K. | Zverev A. ML | 1.450 | 1.00u | +6.8% | W |
| 2025-08-13 | Rune H. vs Tiafoe F. | Rune H. ML | 1.730 | 1.00u | +7.7% | W |
| 2025-08-12 | Rublev A. vs Popyrin A. | Popyrin A. ML | 2.640 | 1.00u | +23.0% | L |
| 2025-08-11 | Tiafoe F. vs Humbert U. | Humbert U. ML | 2.320 | 1.00u | +16.3% | L |
| 2025-08-08 | Shelton B. vs Khachanov K. | Khachanov K. ML | 2.620 | 1.00u | +6.6% | L |
| 2025-08-07 | Khachanov K. vs Zverev A. | Zverev A. ML | 1.470 | 1.00u | +11.2% | L |
| 2025-08-05 | Khachanov K. vs Michelsen A. | Michelsen A. ML | 3.050 | 1.00u | +20.5% | L |
| 2025-08-03 | Popyrin A. vs Rune H. | Popyrin A. ML | 2.860 | 1.00u | +7.3% | W |
| 2025-08-01 | Popyrin A. vs Medvedev D. | Popyrin A. ML | 4.220 | 1.00u | +6.8% | W |
| 2025-07-26 | Shelton B. vs Tiafoe F. | Tiafoe F. ML | 2.910 | 1.00u | +9.2% | L |
| 2025-07-13 | Sinner J. vs Alcaraz C. | Alcaraz C. ML | 2.070 | 1.00u | +20.5% | L |
| 2025-07-11 | Sinner J. vs Djokovic N. | Djokovic N. ML | 2.930 | 1.00u | +33.8% | L |
| 2025-07-04 | Jarry N. vs Fonseca J. | Jarry N. ML | 3.050 | 1.00u | +42.0% | W |
| 2025-06-26 | Fritz T. vs Fonseca J. | Fritz T. ML | 1.410 | 1.00u | +17.0% | W |
| 2025-06-22 | Bublik A. vs Medvedev D. | Medvedev D. ML | 1.650 | 1.00u | +11.3% | L |
| 2025-06-21 | Bublik A. vs Khachanov K. | Bublik A. ML | 1.610 | 1.00u | +6.9% | W |
| 2025-06-21 | Medvedev D. vs Zverev A. | Medvedev D. ML | 2.200 | 1.00u | +17.6% | W |
| 2025-06-17 | Michelsen A. vs Cerundolo F. | Michelsen A. ML | 1.900 | 1.00u | +7.1% | W |
| 2025-06-14 | Zverev A. vs Shelton B. | Zverev A. ML | 1.610 | 1.00u | +17.5% | W |
| 2025-06-08 | Alcaraz C. vs Sinner J. | Alcaraz C. ML | 2.030 | 1.00u | +16.1% | W |
| 2025-06-06 | Sinner J. vs Djokovic N. | Djokovic N. ML | 4.180 | 1.00u | +48.1% | L |
| 2025-06-04 | Djokovic N. vs Zverev A. | Djokovic N. ML | 1.960 | 1.00u | +17.5% | W |
| 2025-06-01 | Paul T. vs Popyrin A. | Paul T. ML | 1.670 | 1.00u | +12.1% | W |
| 2025-05-31 | Draper J. vs Fonseca J. | Fonseca J. ML | 3.060 | 1.00u | +10.4% | L |
| 2025-05-30 | Paul T. vs Khachanov K. | Paul T. ML | 2.130 | 1.00u | +10.1% | W |
| 2025-05-27 | Fonseca J. vs Hurkacz H. | Hurkacz H. ML | 2.070 | 1.00u | +28.5% | L |
| 2025-05-22 | Hurkacz H. vs Fritz T. | Hurkacz H. ML | 2.340 | 1.00u | +7.4% | W |
| 2025-05-18 | Alcaraz C. vs Sinner J. | Alcaraz C. ML | 2.430 | 1.00u | +23.7% | W |
| 2025-05-15 | Paul T. vs Hurkacz H. | Hurkacz H. ML | 3.140 | 1.00u | +30.4% | L |
| 2025-05-13 | Hurkacz H. vs Mensik J. | Hurkacz H. ML | 2.970 | 1.00u | +31.8% | W |
| 2025-05-13 | Sinner J. vs Cerundolo F. | Cerundolo F. ML | 4.000 | 1.00u | +13.8% | L |
| 2025-05-10 | Cerundolo F. vs Jarry N. | Jarry N. ML | 4.930 | 1.00u | +8.7% | L |
| 2025-05-01 | Draper J. vs Arnaldi M. | Arnaldi M. ML | 3.810 | 1.00u | +24.2% | L |
| 2025-04-30 | Draper J. vs Paul T. | Paul T. ML | 2.490 | 1.00u | +28.9% | L |
| 2025-04-29 | Medvedev D. vs Nakashima B. | Medvedev D. ML | 1.430 | 1.00u | +14.5% | W |
| 2025-04-29 | Cerundolo F. vs Zverev A. | Zverev A. ML | 1.540 | 1.00u | +10.9% | L |
| 2025-04-29 | Mensik J. vs Bublik A. | Bublik A. ML | 3.570 | 1.00u | +14.8% | L |
| 2025-04-29 | Paul T. vs Khachanov K. | Khachanov K. ML | 2.170 | 1.00u | +5.5% | L |
| 2025-04-27 | Mensik J. vs Shelton B. | Shelton B. ML | 2.240 | 1.00u | +7.3% | L |
| 2025-04-26 | Draper J. vs Griekspoor T. | Griekspoor T. ML | 2.550 | 1.00u | +14.7% | L |
| 2025-04-26 | Paul T. vs Fonseca J. | Paul T. ML | 2.610 | 1.00u | +25.7% | W |
| 2025-04-26 | Dimitrov G. vs Jarry N. | Dimitrov G. ML | 1.600 | 1.00u | +10.5% | W |
| 2025-04-23 | Bublik A. vs Michelsen A. | Bublik A. ML | 1.990 | 1.00u | +16.1% | W |
| 2025-04-20 | Rune H. vs Alcaraz C. | Rune H. ML | 5.180 | 1.00u | +5.9% | W |
| 2025-04-19 | Rune H. vs Khachanov K. | Khachanov K. ML | 2.510 | 1.00u | +5.0% | L |
| 2025-04-15 | Humbert U. vs Jarry N. | Jarry N. ML | 2.100 | 1.00u | +33.2% | L |
| 2025-04-09 | Popyrin A. vs Tiafoe F. | Tiafoe F. ML | 2.230 | 1.00u | +8.7% | L |
| 2025-04-09 | Alcaraz C. vs Cerundolo F. | Alcaraz C. ML | 1.400 | 1.00u | +13.1% | W |
| 2025-04-08 | Dimitrov G. vs Jarry N. | Jarry N. ML | 3.280 | 1.00u | +8.2% | L |
| 2025-04-08 | Popyrin A. vs Humbert U. | Popyrin A. ML | 2.260 | 1.00u | +25.8% | W |
| 2025-03-28 | Mensik J. vs Fritz T. | Mensik J. ML | 3.400 | 1.00u | +5.3% | W |
| 2025-03-26 | Dimitrov G. vs Cerundolo F. | Dimitrov G. ML | 1.880 | 1.00u | +21.3% | W |
| 2025-03-25 | Dimitrov G. vs Nakashima B. | Dimitrov G. ML | 1.680 | 1.00u | +19.1% | W |
| 2025-03-23 | Dimitrov G. vs Khachanov K. | Dimitrov G. ML | 1.810 | 1.00u | +10.8% | W |
| 2025-03-22 | Fonseca J. vs Humbert U. | Fonseca J. ML | 2.270 | 1.00u | +7.8% | W |
| 2025-03-15 | Draper J. vs Alcaraz C. | Draper J. ML | 3.680 | 1.00u | +14.5% | W |
| 2025-03-13 | Rune H. vs Griekspoor T. | Rune H. ML | 1.630 | 1.00u | +6.7% | W |
| 2025-03-12 | Draper J. vs Fritz T. | Fritz T. ML | 2.080 | 1.00u | +7.7% | L |
| 2025-03-12 | Medvedev D. vs Paul T. | Medvedev D. ML | 1.850 | 1.00u | +18.4% | W |
| 2025-03-11 | Rune H. vs Tsitsipas S. | Rune H. ML | 2.420 | 1.00u | +14.5% | W |
| 2025-03-10 | Shelton B. vs Khachanov K. | Khachanov K. ML | 2.250 | 1.00u | +9.3% | L |
| 2025-03-10 | Nakashima B. vs Arnaldi M. | Arnaldi M. ML | 1.920 | 1.00u | +8.1% | L |
| 2025-03-09 | Medvedev D. vs Michelsen A. | Michelsen A. ML | 3.580 | 1.00u | +6.4% | L |