Match Analysis · Genova · 1/8-finals
Thu 06:00 AMGap9.5 ptsLive win probability →
First ball--
CourtHardBO3
Feed reference+370La Vela
Available context2/42 missing
Model and market
Win probability for Jay Clarke. A difference is a second opinion, not a demonstrated advantage.
Model
Market
9.5 pts
0%50%100%
Comparison reference: Market feed · . Older snapshot. Check the source before relying on this price.
Highest recorded price: Market feed · . Older snapshot. Check the source before relying on this price.
The model includes market information and has not demonstrated that it beats the market. Check the source and any missing player context before drawing a conclusion.
Jay
Clarke
71%🇬🇧#247
VS
Giuseppe
La Vela
29%🇮🇹#553
9.5 PT GAP
hard elo1517/1487
last 1050%/56%
hard win-/57%
serve pts won68%/-
return pts won38%/-
aces / match6.8/-
break pts saved46%/-
Projected outcome
| Player | Wins | In 2 sets | In a decider |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clarke | 72% | 45% | 27% |
| La Vela | 28% | 12% | 16% |
Match goes 3 sets
43%
Straight sets
57%
Total games
24.8
Average
Any tiebreak
46%
3,000 simulated matches from surface Elo, current form, and measured serve/return. Set and game markets are informational, not a guarantee.
Player context
Available context for La Vela against Clarke. These comparisons are not a recommendation or a breakdown of the model's weights.
Where La Vela compares higher
- recent form56%/50%
Where Clarke compares higher
- hard court skill rating1487/1517
iNew to this? How to read the numbers
- Our number62.4%
- An estimated chance to win using available rankings and Elo ratings, blended with market information when available. It has not demonstrated that it beats the market.
- The market54.1%
- The probability implied by a recorded price after normalizing both sides to remove the quoted margin. Check its source and timestamp; this is not a live quote.
- Probability gap8.3 pts
- The difference between model and market estimates for the same player. 60% versus 50% is a 10 percentage-point gap. A larger disagreement does not prove better value or profit.
- Research, not a recommendation
- Matches are ordered by the difference between estimates. A threshold is a sorting rule, not a recommendation to bet. Missing information or old prices may explain the difference.
- L10L10 70%
- Matches won out of the last 10 played. 70% means 7 wins, 3 losses.
- Surface %Grass 71%
- Win rate on this court type (grass, clay or hard). Some players are far better on one surface than another.
Optional private journal
Recorded snapshot
If you keep a betting journal, you can record your own decision here. The reference below is not a recommendation or confirmation of a price you received. Edit the side and price to match your own record.
Higher model-relative estimate: Giuseppe La Vela@ +370(4.70 DEC)
Sign in to add a journal entry →Head-to-Head · all-time
First meeting
No prior tour-level matches between these two
Market feed reference · no individual book stored
Feed reference · Clarke
-714
Market feed · 1.14 DEC
. Older snapshot. Check the source before relying on this price.
Feed reference · La Vela
+370
Market feed · 4.70 DEC
. Older snapshot. Check the source before relying on this price.
| Book | Clarke | La Vela | Vig |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market feedSep 23, 07:00 AM UTC | -714 | +370 | 9.0% |
↑ 1W
LAST 6
Elo · this surface
1517
Form L1050%