A different perspective on tennis.
A second opinion on men's ATP and Challenger tennis. Compare our win probability with the bookmakers' price, with their margin removed. The biggest gaps lead the board.
Buenos Aires 3 · Thu 11:00 AM
Juan Pablo FicovichRank 370
Alex BarrenaRank 240| Win probability | Model | Market |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Pablo Ficovich | 45.4% | 39.2% |
| Alex Barrena | 54.6% | 60.8% |
Model / market gap6.2 pts
Two estimates of the same match. A difference is not a proven advantage.
Explore this matchSee today's board
The top three available matches are free in full. No account needed.
New here? Learn to read the boardWhen we say 60%, it happens about 60% of the time.
Every prediction we have ever settled, grouped by what we said, against what actually happened. The misses are in here too.
1085
Expected wins
1097
Actual wins
Across 2,131 settled predictions.
It does not beat the closing price. Measured on 1,366 matches with both sides priced, the bookmakers' number predicts results slightly better than ours. A calibrated model is not a profitable one, and we would rather you heard that here than found it out later.
Every prediction, grouped by what we said
Bar is what we said. Line is what happened.
Three steps to a second opinion.
Rate
Players get ratings from the results we track. Clay, grass and hard courts are rated separately, because a player's form can change with the surface. The model uses ATP and Challenger results going back to 2020.
- Hard
- Clay
- Grass
Price
That rating becomes a win chance, and the win chance becomes a price. Bookies build a profit margin into their odds, so we take that out first, otherwise we would be comparing two different things.
Publish
The board puts the biggest model-versus-market disagreements first, wherever a model probability and market price are available. We record the result and compare our number with the closing price. A gap is a difference of opinion, not proof of an advantage.
Mochizuki Woo Kwon
What is inside.
Explore the players, their form, the tour and our record. These are archived app captures; open each view for its current data and layout.
What it costs.
Everyone
Free
- The top three available board matches, in full
- Scores for matches covered by the live feed
- Player profiles, form and head-to-heads
- The record, including the losses
CourtCockpit+
$9.99per month
or $79.99 a year ($6.67 a month)
- The full board of available model and market prices
- Details behind recorded injury and withdrawal notes
- Posting access in the member room
- Manage your subscription from your account
What this is not.
- A guarantee.
- Tennis is streaky, and a calibrated price is not a winning one. Our number says what we think is likely, not what will happen tonight.
- Financial advice.
- Only bet what you can afford to lose. Keep track of every bet. Never chase a loss.
- A tout service.
- Matches show up because the numbers disagree, not because we fancy a player.
Make the board your next stop.
Read it free, every day. Or leave your email and we will send you the day's biggest disagreements.
