Our number against the market's on every men's ATP and Challenger match. Where the two disagree by more than 5%, that gap is an edge, and we publish it.
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A 2025 backtest of 99 published picks, settled against Pinnacle's closing line. It went underwater before it went up, and the curve shows both.
This is a backtest, not a live record, and it is labelled that way everywhere it appears. Picks published since launch are settled against the close and shown on the record page.
A surface-specific Elo, trained match by match on every ATP result since 2020 plus tour-level Challenger and qualifying. Hard, clay and grass each carry their own number.
That win probability becomes a fair decimal price, lined up against the best price on the board with the bookmaker's margin stripped out, so the comparison is honest.
The gap between our price and theirs is the edge. Everything over 5% is published and settled against the closing line, win or lose.
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