Antofagasta · 1/16-finals · HardMon 11:00 AM · Best of 3
Samuel Heredia versus Eduardo Ribeiro
Our number and the market's
Each player's chance of winning. A difference is a second opinion, not a demonstrated advantage.
Heredia
- Model
- 33.6%
- Market
- 24.8%
Ribeiro
- Model
- 66.4%
- Market
- 75.2%
Our number and the market's are 8.8 points apart on this match.
Price recorded · Market feed · older snapshot
The model includes market information and has not shown that it beats the market. Check the source and any missing player context before drawing a conclusion.
First ball--
CourtHardBO3
Best priceNo line yet
Available context1 of 43 missing
Tale of the tape
Ribeiro- Hard Elo
- No data
- 1403
- Won, last 10
- 4 of 10
- 4 of 10
- Win rate on hard
- No data
- 33%
- Service points won
- No data
- 60%
- Return points won
- No data
- 39%
- Aces per match
- No data
- 2.0
- Break points saved
- No data
- 65%
Projected outcome
| Player | Wins | In 2 sets | Decider |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heredia | 34% | 16% | 18% |
| Ribeiro | 66% | 39% | 27% |
Match goes 3 sets
45%
Straight sets
55%
Total games
24.2
Average
Any tiebreak
36%
3,000 simulated matches from surface Elo, current form, and measured serve/return. Set and game markets are informational, not a guarantee.
Player context
Not enough comparable history is available for these players. Missing data is not a disadvantage.
iNew to this? How to read the numbers
- Our number62.4%
- An estimated chance to win using available rankings and Elo ratings, blended with market information when available. It has not demonstrated that it beats the market.
- The market54.1%
- The probability implied by a recorded price after normalizing both sides to remove the quoted margin. Check its source and timestamp; this is not a live quote.
- Probability gap8.3 pts
- The difference between model and market estimates for the same player. 60% versus 50% is a 10 percentage-point gap. A larger disagreement does not prove better value or profit.
- Research, not a recommendation
- Matches are ordered by the difference between estimates. A threshold is a sorting rule, not a recommendation to bet. Missing information or old prices may explain the difference.
- L10L10 70%
- Matches won out of the last 10 played. 70% means 7 wins, 3 losses.
- Surface %Grass 71%
- Win rate on this court type (grass, clay or hard). Some players are far better on one surface than another.
Optional private journal
Recorded snapshot
If you keep a betting journal, you can record your own decision here. The reference below is not a recommendation or confirmation of a price you received. Edit the side and price to match your own record.
Higher model-relative estimateSamuel Heredia@ +280(3.80 DEC)
Sign in to add a journal entryHead-to-Head · all-time
First meeting
No prior tour-level matches between these two
Line shopping
No bookmaker has priced this match yet.Only the market feed has, and it is a data provider rather than somewhere to bet. Bookmaker prices appear here once The Odds API lists a match, which it does for most ATP and WTA main-draw matches and not for Challengers.
1L
LAST 6
Elo · this surface
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Form L10