Antofagasta · 1/16-finals · HardMon 11:00 AM · Best of 3
Felipe Meligeni Alves versus Juan Pablo Varillas
Our number and the market's
Each player's chance of winning. A difference is a second opinion, not a demonstrated advantage.
Alves
- Model
- 45.4%
- Market
- 53.9%
Varillas
- Model
- 54.6%
- Market
- 46.1%
Our number and the market's are 8.6 points apart on this match.
Price recorded · Market feed · older snapshot
The model includes market information and has not shown that it beats the market. Check the source and any missing player context before drawing a conclusion.
First ball--
CourtHardBO3
Best priceNo line yet
Available context4 of 4All present
Tale of the tape
Varillas- Hard Elo
- 1552
- 1610
- Won, last 10
- 5 of 10
- 7 of 10
- Win rate on hard
- No data
- 69%
- Service points won
- 59%
- 67%
- Return points won
- 37%
- 40%
- Aces per match
- 3.0
- 3.6
- Break points saved
- 63%
Projected outcome
| Player | Wins | In 2 sets | Decider |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alves | 46% | 24% | 21% |
| Varillas | 54% | 29% | 25% |
Match goes 3 sets
46%
Straight sets
54%
Total games
24.8
Average
Any tiebreak
41%
3,000 simulated matches from surface Elo, current form, and measured serve/return. Set and game markets are informational, not a guarantee.
Player context
Available context for Varillas against Alves. These comparisons are not a recommendation or a breakdown of the model's weights.
Where Varillas compares higher
- head to head3/0
- service games75%/67%
- recent form70%/50%
- hard court skill rating1610/1552
Where Alves compares higher
- match sharpness10d/5d
iNew to this? How to read the numbers
- Our number62.4%
- An estimated chance to win using available rankings and Elo ratings, blended with market information when available. It has not demonstrated that it beats the market.
- The market54.1%
- The probability implied by a recorded price after normalizing both sides to remove the quoted margin. Check its source and timestamp; this is not a live quote.
- Probability gap8.3 pts
- The difference between model and market estimates for the same player. 60% versus 50% is a 10 percentage-point gap. A larger disagreement does not prove better value or profit.
- Research, not a recommendation
- Matches are ordered by the difference between estimates. A threshold is a sorting rule, not a recommendation to bet. Missing information or old prices may explain the difference.
- L10L10 70%
- Matches won out of the last 10 played. 70% means 7 wins, 3 losses.
- Surface %Grass 71%
- Win rate on this court type (grass, clay or hard). Some players are far better on one surface than another.
Optional private journal
Recorded snapshot
If you keep a betting journal, you can record your own decision here. The reference below is not a recommendation or confirmation of a price you received. Edit the side and price to match your own record.
Higher model-relative estimateJuan Pablo Varillas@ +105(2.05 DEC)
Sign in to add a journal entryHead-to-Head · all-time
Alves
0
-
Varillas
3
Hard
0-0
Clay
0-3
Grass
0-0
Last 3: Alves 0-3
Line shopping
No bookmaker has priced this match yet.Only the market feed has, and it is a data provider rather than somewhere to bet. Bookmaker prices appear here once The Odds API lists a match, which it does for most ATP and WTA main-draw matches and not for Challengers.
1L
LAST 6
Elo · this surface
1552
Form L10
Last meetings · between these two
| Date | Event | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11-06 | Lima CH | R32 | CLAY | Juan Pablo Varillas | 7-6(4) 6-7(8) 6-4 |
| 2021-03-08 | Santiago | Q3 | CLAY | Juan Pablo Varillas |