Match Analysis · Bari (Italy) - Qualification · 1/16-finals
Mon 10:30 AMGap13.5 ptsLive win probability →
First ball--
CourtHardBO3
Feed reference+184Petkovic
Available context1/43 missing
Model and market
Win probability for Mika Petkovic. A difference is a second opinion, not a demonstrated advantage.
Model
Market
13.5 pts
0%50%100%
Comparison reference: Market feed · . Older snapshot. Check the source before relying on this price.
Highest recorded price: Market feed · . Older snapshot. Check the source before relying on this price.
The model includes market information and has not demonstrated that it beats the market. Check the source and any missing player context before drawing a conclusion.
Mika
Petkovic
46%🇩🇪#431
VS
Vitaliy
Sachko
54%🇺🇦#179
13.5 PT GAP
hard elo-/1649
last 1029%/50%
hard win29%/57%
serve pts won61%/60%
return pts won38%/41%
aces / match2.7/6.2
break pts saved38%/53%
Projected outcome
| Player | Wins | In 2 sets | In a decider |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petkovic | 45% | 23% | 22% |
| Sachko | 55% | 31% | 24% |
Match goes 3 sets
46%
Straight sets
54%
Total games
24.5
Average
Any tiebreak
39%
3,000 simulated matches from surface Elo, current form, and measured serve/return. Set and game markets are informational, not a guarantee.
Player context
Available context for Petkovic against Sachko. These comparisons are not a recommendation or a breakdown of the model's weights.
Where Petkovic compares higher
- match sharpness4d/18d
Where Sachko compares higher
- hard court record29%/57%
- recent form29%/50%
iNew to this? How to read the numbers
- Our number62.4%
- An estimated chance to win using available rankings and Elo ratings, blended with market information when available. It has not demonstrated that it beats the market.
- The market54.1%
- The probability implied by a recorded price after normalizing both sides to remove the quoted margin. Check its source and timestamp; this is not a live quote.
- Probability gap8.3 pts
- The difference between model and market estimates for the same player. 60% versus 50% is a 10 percentage-point gap. A larger disagreement does not prove better value or profit.
- Research, not a recommendation
- Matches are ordered by the difference between estimates. A threshold is a sorting rule, not a recommendation to bet. Missing information or old prices may explain the difference.
- L10L10 70%
- Matches won out of the last 10 played. 70% means 7 wins, 3 losses.
- Surface %Grass 71%
- Win rate on this court type (grass, clay or hard). Some players are far better on one surface than another.
Optional private journal
Recorded snapshot
If you keep a betting journal, you can record your own decision here. The reference below is not a recommendation or confirmation of a price you received. Edit the side and price to match your own record.
Higher model-relative estimate: Mika Petkovic@ +184(2.84 DEC)
Sign in to add a journal entry →Head-to-Head · all-time
First meeting
No prior tour-level matches between these two
Market feed reference · no individual book stored
Feed reference · Petkovic
+184
Market feed · 2.84 DEC
. Older snapshot. Check the source before relying on this price.
Feed reference · Sachko
-270
Market feed · 1.37 DEC
. Older snapshot. Check the source before relying on this price.
| Book | Petkovic | Sachko | Vig |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market feedSep 28, 07:00 AM UTC | +184 | -270 | 8.2% |
↓ 1L
LAST 6
Elo · this surface
-
Form L1029%
