Match Analysis · Curitiba · 1/16-finals
Mon 11:00 AMGap12.4 ptsLive win probability →
First ball--
CourtHardBO3
Feed reference+240Velasco
Available context2/42 missing
Model and market
Win probability for Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva. A difference is a second opinion, not a demonstrated advantage.
Model
Market
12.4 pts
0%50%100%
Comparison reference: Market feed · . Older snapshot. Check the source before relying on this price.
Highest recorded price: Market feed · . Older snapshot. Check the source before relying on this price.
The model includes market information and has not demonstrated that it beats the market. Check the source and any missing player context before drawing a conclusion.
Joao
Lucas Reis Da Silva
61%🇧🇷#224
VS
MA
Murkel
Alejandro Dellien Velasco
39%🇧🇴#423
12.4 PT GAP
hard elo1609/-
last 1070%/40%
hard win67%/25%
serve pts won65%/-
return pts won41%/-
aces / match4.0/-
break pts saved41%/-
head to head1/2
Projected outcome
| Player | Wins | In 2 sets | In a decider |
|---|---|---|---|
| Da Silva | 60% | 35% | 25% |
| Velasco | 40% | 20% | 20% |
Match goes 3 sets
45%
Straight sets
55%
Total games
24.6
Average
Any tiebreak
40%
3,000 simulated matches from surface Elo, current form, and measured serve/return. Set and game markets are informational, not a guarantee.
Player context
Available context for Velasco against Da Silva. These comparisons are not a recommendation or a breakdown of the model's weights.
Where Velasco compares higher
- match sharpness5d/16d
- head to head2/1
Where Da Silva compares higher
- hard court record25%/67%
- recent form40%/70%
iNew to this? How to read the numbers
- Our number62.4%
- An estimated chance to win using available rankings and Elo ratings, blended with market information when available. It has not demonstrated that it beats the market.
- The market54.1%
- The probability implied by a recorded price after normalizing both sides to remove the quoted margin. Check its source and timestamp; this is not a live quote.
- Probability gap8.3 pts
- The difference between model and market estimates for the same player. 60% versus 50% is a 10 percentage-point gap. A larger disagreement does not prove better value or profit.
- Research, not a recommendation
- Matches are ordered by the difference between estimates. A threshold is a sorting rule, not a recommendation to bet. Missing information or old prices may explain the difference.
- L10L10 70%
- Matches won out of the last 10 played. 70% means 7 wins, 3 losses.
- Surface %Grass 71%
- Win rate on this court type (grass, clay or hard). Some players are far better on one surface than another.
Optional private journal
Recorded snapshot
If you keep a betting journal, you can record your own decision here. The reference below is not a recommendation or confirmation of a price you received. Edit the side and price to match your own record.
Higher model-relative estimate: Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco@ +240(3.40 DEC)
Sign in to add a journal entry →Head-to-Head · all-time
Da Silva
1
-
Velasco
2
Hard
0-0
Clay
1-2
Grass
0-0
Last 3: Da Silva 1-2
Market feed reference · no individual book stored
Feed reference · Da Silva
-400
Market feed · 1.25 DEC
. Older snapshot. Check the source before relying on this price.
Feed reference · Velasco
+240
Market feed · 3.40 DEC
. Older snapshot. Check the source before relying on this price.
| Book | Da Silva | Velasco | Vig |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market feedSep 27, 07:00 AM UTC | -400 | +240 | 9.4% |
↑ 4W
LAST 6
Elo · this surface
1609
Form L1070%
Last meetings · between these two
| Date | Event | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-01 | Porto Alegre | Porto Alegre - 1/8-finals | CLAY | Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva | 2 - 0 |
| 2025-01-15 | Buenos Aires 2 | Buenos Aires 2 - 1/8-finals | CLAY | Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco |